The goal is to develop an operational framework for seasonal forecasting for the water resources sector that combines model and measurement data with forecasts into decision information. This system will support water resource and reservoir managers by providing inflow forecasting and water resource outlooks for hydropower, production, flood protection, irrigation, water supply and environmental flows.
To demonstrate its capabilities, the prototype is being developed in collaboration with Aguas de Añarbe (AGASA) for the Urumea catchment. The Urumea catchment is representative of many areas that are vulnerable to both floods and droughts and water scarcity. The case is challenging as the rainfall distribution varies strongly over a relatively small distance from the coast, in the case from 1800 mm/year at sea level, to 2600 mm/year at 350m above sea level. Located in northern Spain, partly in the Basque country and partly in Navarra, the main rivers are the Urumea and the Añarbe. On the Añarbe River, the Añarbe reservoir is operated by Aguas de Añarbe (AGASA). This reservoir supplies water to the city of San Sebastian as well as hydropower, and the reservoir is operated to provide flood protection downstream and to maintain environmental flows within the Urumea River.
The prototype DSS is being developed within a general software framework, MIKE CUSTOMISED. Essentially, MIKE CUSTOMISED is a set of tools, that supports decision making by providing structure and functionality within technical tools. The aim is to develop a generic seasonal forecasting system that can be configured to particular applications for water resource and reservoir management.